GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Sat Mar 5, 2022
<p>You can trigger large avalanches today on weak layers buried 1-2 feet deep. A number of slides broke ~100 feet wide on these weak layers on Thursday in Republic Creek, Hayden Creek, and on Mineral Mountain (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/22/natural-avalanche-republic-creek"…;, <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/22/natural-avalanche-republic-creek-…; </strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/26073"><strong><u>details</u></strong>…;). A slide on the NE face aspect of Mineral Mountain ran ~1600 vertical feet (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/22/avalanche-mineral-mountain"><stro…;). Similar slides are possible today. If you’re planning to go into steep terrain, digging and testing the weak layers in the upper snowpack is your best strategy to avoid triggering one of these slides. Ride one at a time on steep slopes, watch your partners from a safe spot, and choose slopes with clean runouts to stack the deck in your favor in case you do trigger a slide. The avalanche danger is MODERATE.</p>
<p>Large avalanches are unlikely today. Temperatures have cooled to well below freezing, so wet avalanches are no longer a concern. The inch or two of new snow is not enough to create a significant or widespread hazard, especially because winds have generally been light. Do be on the lookout for isolated pockets where more than a few inches of wind drifted snow sit on weak layers in the upper snowpack (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nfudo3K5_dM"><strong><u>video</u></stro…;). Winds have been shifting and blowing from unusual directions, so drifts may be found in unusual locations. Cracks shooting out in front of your skis or snowmobile are the best clue that you’ve found an unstable drift. LOW danger does not mean NO danger. Even a small slide can knock you off your feet and have big consequences if you’re above trees, rocks, or cliffs - so be heads up if you’re pushing into more exposed terrain. The avalanche danger today is LOW.</p>
<p>If you get out, please send us your observations no matter how brief. You can submit them via our <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation"><strong><u>websi…;, email (<a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com"><strong><u>mtavalanche@gmail.com</u></str…;), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>
Upcoming Education Opportunities
See our education calendar for an up-to-date list of all local classes. Here are a few select upcoming events.
Every Saturday near Cooke City, 10 a.m.-3 p.m. FREE snowpack update and transceiver/rescue training. Stop by for 20 minutes or more at the Round Lake Warming Hut.
From obs: "An avalanche ran on The NE face of Mineral Mountain. Debris ran approximately 1600’. I couldn’t get good enough eyes to see the trigger type but there was a possible ski track near the flank on mid slope. but I couldn’t confirm. Debris looked frozen this morning and it likely occurred on 3/3/22".
Photo: R. Youngbar
Avalanche on Mineral Mountain
An avalanche ran on The NE face of Mineral Mountain. Debris ran approximately 1600’. I couldn’t get good enough eyes to see the trigger type but there was a possible ski track near the flank on mid slope. but I couldn’t confirm. Debris looked frozen this morning and it likely occurred as a wet slab on 3/3/22
Pinwheeling
Lots of Pinwheeling observed around Daisy pass, the south facing aspect of Chimney Rock and East facing aspect of Crown Butte are pictured. observed 3/3/22
GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Fri Mar 4, 2022
<p>Triggering large wet and dry avalanches are both concerns today. Yesterday, 3 avalanches broke on weak layers 1-2 ft deep on east aspects in Republic Creek and ran a couple hundred vertical feet (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/22/natural-avalanche-republic-creek"…;, <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/22/natural-avalanche-republic-creek-…; </strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/26073"><strong><u>details</u></strong>…;). A skier triggered and was caught in an avalanche on Tuesday on this same weak layer near Goose Creek (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/26049"><strong><u>photos and details</u></strong></a>). You could trigger a similar slide today. Temperatures will rise well above freezing after a poor refreeze overnight. This means you could also trigger wet loose avalanches, especially on sunny slopes. Increasing clouds should keep conditions from deteriorating too much, but even a small loose slide can be an issue in consequential terrain. The avalanche danger is rated MODERATE.</p>
<p>While the snow surface refroze last night, temperatures only dropped below freezing for a couple hours and will warm quickly this morning. A number of small wet loose avalanches were reported yesterday (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/weather/wx-avalanche-log"><strong><u>avalan… log</u></strong></a>). Temperatures will be a little cooler and skies cloudier today, but wet snow remains the primary concern. Mostly these will be small surface slides, but in some places there may be unfrozen wet snow underneath a surface crust that could break in a larger avalanche. Avoid steep slopes that are wet more than a few inches below the surface. Triggering a slide on dry weak layers in top 1.5 ft of the snowpack is less likely, but it’s still worth double checking to make sure they aren’t unstable. For today, the avalanche danger is MODERATE.</p>
<p>With more moderate temperatures and increasing clouds any wet snow concerns will remain limited. Yesterday at Lionhead, Doug and I saw a few small wet point releases and a recent wind slab (<a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/22/loose-wet-avalanches-lionhead"><s…;, <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/22/wind-slab-avalanche-lionhead-ridg…;). These are the primary concerns today as well. Pay attention to wet snow beneath your feet and to any wind slabs that haven’t bonded, especially if you’re going to ride in highly exposed terrain. Weak layers remain in the upper snowpack that will be an issue as it starts snowing again (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nfudo3K5_dM"><strong><u>video</u></stro…;, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBlMQnlwK-g"><strong><u>video</u></stro…;). Overall, large avalanches are unlikely today and the avalanche danger is LOW.</p>
<p>If you get out, please send us your observations no matter how brief. You can submit them via our <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation"><strong><u>websi…;, email (<a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com"><strong><u>mtavalanche@gmail.com</u></str…;), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>
Upcoming Education Opportunities
See our education calendar for an up-to-date list of all local classes. Here are a few select upcoming events.
Today! Companion Rescue Clinic with the Bozeman Splitfest. Information and registration HERE.
Natural avalanches in Cooke City
3 fresh natural slab avalanches were seen on E aspects in Republic Creek, 8500-9400’ in elevation, that broke on 3/3/22. These slab avalanches were 1-2' deep and up to around 100' wide. One appears to have been triggered by a pine marten.
A half dozen small slabs released off the mid elevation south aspects of Mineral Mtn and a large slide broke on the NE aspect and ran 1600 ft.
A natural avalanche was seen on Climax in Hayden Creek - broke approximately 100 ft wide an ran over cliffs and rocks.
From observation 3/3/22: "Observed multiple avalanches on E aspect, 8500-9400’, one of which occurring this afternoon, triggered by a pine marten... 2’ crown, 9400’, S of Midway. Failed on NSF down 30-60cm." Photo: S. Gill
Forecast link: GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Fri Mar 4, 2022GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Sat Mar 5, 2022