18-19

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Sun Mar 3, 2019

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p>Last week the mountains in the southern half of our advisory area and near Cooke City received 4-6 feet of heavy snow (4-6” of <a href="https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/or/snow/?cid=nrcs142p2… water equivalent</a>), and an avalanche warning expired on Friday. Yesterday natural avalanches were reported in the southern Madison Range (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/19/natural-slides-woodward-mtn">phot…;) and mountains near Cooke City (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/20264">details</a></strong&gt;). A snowmobiler triggered a deep avalanche on a small slope near Sage Peak in the southern Madison Range and luckily was not caught (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/20266">photo and details</a></strong>). On Friday Eric and I rode in Taylor Fork and saw no signs of instability (<strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zGw4u4bLw2c&amp;list=PLXu5151nmAvRNl9ku…;), but slides yesterday are bullseye data that some slopes are unstable.</p>

<p>The last couple days with minimal snow and light wind allowed the snowpack to adjust to the recent heavy snow. Avalanches are becoming less likely, but are still possible today. Wind loaded slopes are the most dangerous, and avalanches of recent snow can break up to 2-4’ deep on any slope steeper than 35 degrees. Watch for cracking of the snow surface or avalanches on small test slopes as signs to avoid bigger steep terrain. Avalanches could break deeper and wider on weak snow at the base of the snowpack (<u><strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXUCG2z6fYI&amp;list=PLXu5151nmAvRNl9ku…;). Today large avalanches are possible to trigger and avalanche danger is <strong>MODERATE</strong>.</p>

<p>Yesterday we received reports of natural and human triggered avalanches in Hyalite, the Bridger Range and near Big Sky (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/avalanche-activity">Activity Log</a></strong>). A large natural avalanche occurred on the west side of Saddle Peak in the Bridger Range (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/20262">details and photos</a></strong>), which was not far from a fatal avalanche that happened Tuesday (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/sites/default/files/accident-reports/2019-0…;). The Yellowstone Club ski patrol triggered an avalanche with explosives, which broke four feet deep on weak snow at the ground (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/20258">details and photos</a></strong>). They also reported a snowmobile triggered slide near Cedar Mountain (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/20275">details and photo</a></strong>).</p>

<p>Wind loaded slopes are the main concern in the mountains near Bozeman and Big Sky. Soft slabs 1-2’ thick are possible to trigger. Watch for cracking of the snow surface as a sign these fresh drifts are unstable. A less likely, but larger consequence avalanche can be triggered on weak snow deep in the snowpack. Yesterday we went to Beehive Basin to look for this weak snow that was likely responsible for a large natural avalanche on Friday (<strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T0nc39kxm0A&amp;index=3&amp;list=PLXu51…;, <strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/19/large-natural-avalanche-wilson-pe…;). The best way to avoid this type of slide is to avoid heavily wind loaded slopes and slopes where the snowpack is relatively shallow (less than 5 feet).</p>

<p>Today, human triggered avalanches are possible and the avalanche danger is rated MODERATE. Carefully assess the snowpack and terrain before riding steep slopes.</p>

<p>If you get out and have any avalanche or snowpack observations to share, contact us via our <u><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation">website</a></u&gt;, email (<u><a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com">mtavalanche@gmail.com</a></u&gt;), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>

Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events

Our education calendar is full of awareness lectures and field courses. Check it out: Events and Education Calendar.

BOZEMAN

Today, Bozeman Split Fest, More info at www.bozemansplitfest.com.

March 6, 1-hr Avalanche Awareness, 6-7 p.m. at REI Bozeman.

Natural avalanches on Hardscrabble

Hardscrabble Peak
Bridger Range
Code
SS-N-O
Elevation
9000
Aspect
NE
Notes

From the email: "While touring Fairy Lake and Frazier Basin, we noticed two large natural slides on the E-facing bowls of Hardscrabble Peak. Low visibility, but crowns looked to be about 2-4 ft. high and 150-300 ft. wide. Fractured at approx. 9,000’, slid approx. 500-800 ft. into the lower angle slopes below. N-facing slopes at 8,800’ were heavily wind-loaded, with a hard wind slab present which made skinning difficult. This 5” wind slab fractured easily under our skis and slid over a layer of light snow from the recent storm."

Multiple Avalanches
Number of slides
2
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
Bed Surface
O - Old snow
Slab Thickness
36.0 inches
Vertical Fall
800ft
Slab Width
300.00ft
Slab Thickness units
inches
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Multiple Avalanches
Advisory Year

Collapsing in the Northern Madison

NORTHERN MADISON RANGE
Northern Madison
Code
Elevation
8500
Notes

A skier heard a large whumpf after stepping out of his skis and punching through supportable snow in the upper snowpack. They dug a pit and found rounding facets near the ground in a relatively shallow snowpack (HS 140 cm). Stability tests propagated at ECTP15 on a layer above the facets.

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year

Snowmobile Triggered- Cedar Mountain

Cedar Mtn.
Northern Madison
Code
SS-AM-R2-D2
Elevation
8800
Aspect
E
Latitude
45.23680
Longitude
-111.48500
Notes

YC ski patrol snapped a photo of this avalanche, which they guessed was triggered by a snowmobile. Photo: YCSP

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Snowmobile
R size
2
D size
2
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year

Natural Avalanches in Hyalite

Hyalite - main fork
Northern Gallatin
Code
HS-NC-R3-D2-O
Latitude
45.40320
Longitude
-110.97500
Notes

These slides failed on paths that had released previously in late January. Both paths were heavily wind-loaded, and were most likely triggered by cornice fall.

Multiple Avalanches
Number of slides
2
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Hard slab avalanche
Trigger
Cornice fall
R size
3
D size
2
Bed Surface
O - Old snow
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Multiple Avalanches
Advisory Year

Natural Avalanches in the Taylor Fork area

Taylor Fork
Southern Madison
Code
SS-N-R2-D2-O
Latitude
44.96410
Longitude
-111.31700
Notes

A snowmobiler sent in a photo of multiple natural avalanches near Woodward Mtn. He also reported large avalanches near Pika Point and Skyline Ridge that failed at the ground. Photos: P. Honsinger

Multiple Avalanches
Number of slides
6
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
R size
2
D size
2
Bed Surface
O - Old snow
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Multiple Avalanches
Advisory Year

Snowmobile triggered behind sage peak

Sage Peak
Southern Madison
Code
SS-AMu-R3-D2-I
Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Snowmobile
Trigger Modifier
u-An unintentional release
R size
3
D size
2
Bed Surface
I - Interface between new and old snow
Problem Type
Wind-Drifted Snow
Slab Thickness
30.0 inches
Vertical Fall
100ft
Slab Width
75.00ft
Slab Thickness units
inches
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year