GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Thu Apr 4, 2019
<p>In many areas, temperatures barely dropped below freezing overnight, which will allow the snow surface to soften quickly as the day warms. This will increase the potential for small wet loose avalanches in steep terrain (<u><strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UiV-oyg9Gk&list=PLXu5151nmAvRNl9ku…;). Wet roller balls and pinwheels are signs the surface snow is becoming weak and unstable. Soft-slushy snow deeper than a boot top also indicates the surface snow is losing strength. Managing this problem isn’t difficult. Move to shadier aspects or away from steep terrain if the surface snow is becoming soft and damp. Fortunately, increasing clouds and breezy conditions will help limit wet loose avalanche activity today.</p>
<p>A secondary concern is new snow instabilities, specifically in the northern Madison Range. This area picked up 2-4” of snow overnight, which increases the potential for small wind slabs and loose snow avalanches (<u><strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOGak2sjA3s&list=PLXu5151nmAvRNl9ku…;). The new snow came in warm and should be well bonded to the old snow surface. However, the new snow will move easily under the influence of warmer temps and direct sun (<u><strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sp2O8fG8U4g&list=PLXu5151nmAvRNl9ku…;). Both dry and wet loose avalanches will be possible in steep terrain, but these will be relatively small and easy to manage. Isolated wind slabs are an additional concern on upper elevation slopes loaded by west-southwest winds (<u><strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/19/snowmobile-triggered-slab-norther…;). If you’re gunning for high alpine objectives today, watch for this problem before committing to high consequence terrain.</p>
<p>Today, Generally safe avalanche conditions exist and the avalanche danger is rated <strong>LOW</strong>. Remember – <strong>LOW</strong> danger does not mean <strong>NO</strong> danger. Small avalanches remain possible in isolated areas or extreme terrain. </p>
<p>If you get out and have any avalanche or snowpack observations to share, contact us via our <u><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation">website</a></u>, email (<u><a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com">mtavalanche@gmail.com</a></u>), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>
GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Wed Apr 3, 2019
<p>The snowpack is locked up and avalanches are unlikely today. Even though temperatures will rise to above freezing, cloud cover will keep the surface frozen and supportable and ward off wet avalanche activity. Eric rode around Taylor Fork yesterday and found a frozen snowpack and safe avalanche conditions.</p>
<p>Ian was in the northern Bridger Range on Monday (<u><strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UiV-oyg9Gk&list=PLXu5151nmAvRNl9ku…;) and noted that higher elevations or shadier aspects are still holding dry, stable snow. In the last week we’ve visited Cooke City (<strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-f8al-UsP3s&list=PLXu5151nmAvRNl9ku…;), Bacon Rind (<strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBQp2prXUzk&list=PLXu5151nmAvRNl9ku…;), Taylor Fork, Beehive (<strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sp2O8fG8U4g&list=PLXu5151nmAvRNl9ku…; Hyalite (<strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOGak2sjA3s&list=PLXu5151nmAvRNl9ku…;) and the Bridger Range. Our observations are remarkably similar: the snowpack is stable and our future concern will be new snow avalanches whenever we get our next snow storm.</p>
<p>People are having fun pushing into steeper terrain given the good conditions, but remember, avalanche risk is never zero. A small wind-drifted avalanche, like the one a snowmobiler triggered in the Bridger Range last weekend (<u><strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/19/snowmobile-triggered-slab-norther…;), would be ruinous in high consequence terrain.</p>
<p>For today, the avalanche danger is rated <strong>LOW</strong>.</p>
<p>If you get out and have any avalanche or snowpack observations to share, contact us via our <u><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation">website</a></u>, email (<u><a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com">mtavalanche@gmail.com</a></u>), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>
GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Tue Apr 2, 2019
<p>Avalanches are unlikely today. It’s been a month since the last big loading event and the little bit of recent snow has bonded well and stabilized. Moderate temperatures and clouds will keep crusts from breaking down today, keeping wet snow avalanches in check. Still, if you’re stepping out into high consequence terrain, keep small avalanches in the upper snowpack on your list of hazards.</p>
<p>Snow conditions are highly variable depending on aspect and elevation (<strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOGak2sjA3s&list=PLXu5151nmAvRNl9ku…;, <strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBQp2prXUzk&list=PLXu5151nmAvRNl9ku…;, <strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sp2O8fG8U4g&list=PLXu5151nmAvRNl9ku…;). Yesterday I toured in the northern Bridger Range and found shady slopes still holding dry snow (<strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2UiV-oyg9Gk&list=PLXu5151nmAvRNl9ku…;). On these sun protected slopes, you might find an isolated wind slab below an upper elevation ridgeline, but these will be small and relatively harmless (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/19/snowmobile-triggered-slab-norther…;). There are thick crusts on low elevation and sunny slopes. These crusts only softened up a little, if at all, yesterday and I generally expect them to stay rock hard today as well. If you do find wet snow more than an inch or two deep on a low elevation or particularly sunny slope this afternoon, you could trigger a small loose wet avalanche.</p>
<p>While conditions are generally stable, it is not the time to slack off on good travel practices. Only expose one person at a time to steep slopes, watch your partners from a safe spot, and always carry avalanche rescue gear.</p>
<p>The avalanche danger today is <strong>LOW</strong>.</p>
<p>If you get out and have any avalanche or snowpack observations to share, contact us via our <a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/add/snow_observation">website</a>, email (<a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com">mtavalanche@gmail.com</a>), phone (406-587-6984), or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>
Natural wet avalanche at Dudley Creek
Hikers reported a wet avalanche near the Dudley Creek trailhead. From the email:
"On Sunday March 31 we observed that several wet slides had occurred during the last week. The slides came almost down to the road beside the FS trailhead and into the backyards of two residences below the steep NE facing slopes. The trail was covered in debris above the uppermost house and their fence was torn up and carried into the yard. We spoke with one of the residents and were told that the slides occurred about a week ago and were the biggest they had experienced." Photo and obs: J. Cummins
This wet avalanche crossed the Dudley Creek trail and took out a portion of a fence on private land. It barely missed hitting the house. Photo: J. Cummins
The wet avalanche crossed the Dudley Creek trail and took out a portion of a fence on private land. It barely missed hitting the house. Photo: J. Cummins
This wet avalanche ran almost all the way to the road near the Dudley Creek trailhead. Photo: J. Cummins