GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Mon Mar 2, 2015

Not the Current Forecast

Good morning. This is Eric Knoff with the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Advisory issued on Monday, March 2, at 7:30 a.m. Bozeman Ski Guide and J.A. Gear sponsor today’s advisory. This advisory does not apply to operating ski areas.

Mountain Weather

This morning there is no new snow to report and temperatures range from 10-15 F under clear skies. Winds are blowing 10-20 mph out of the W-NW with gusts around Big Sky and Cooke City reaching close to 30 mph. Today will be a transition day as a storm approaches from the northwest. Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 20s F and skies will become increasingly cloudy. Winds will gradually increase out of the W-NW with gusts over 30 mph expected in upper elevation terrain later in the day. Snow will begin to fall this evening with 2-4 inches likely in the mountains by tomorrow. A sharp drop in temperatures will also arrive this evening. Temps well below zero can be expected tomorrow morning.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

Bridger Range   Madison Range   Gallatin Range   

Lionhead Area near West Yellowstone   Cooke City

The primary avalanche problem today will be wind slabs. In the mountains around Big Sky and Cooke City, winds have already become strong enough to transport snow. The mountains around Bozeman and West Yellowstone have not yet seen a spike in wind speed, but that will likely change as the day progresses. With plenty of snow available for transport, increasing winds will equal increasing avalanche danger. Pay close attention to blowing snow and avoid slopes that appear to be getting wind loaded.

Outside of wind loaded slopes the snowpack is mostly strong and stable (video). There are few lingering instabilities about a foot deep near Cooke City and Big Sky. On Saturday, skiers outside of Cooke City triggered a few small slides in steep terrain. These slides were not large, but a good reminder to stay heads up. I don’t expect this problem to be long lived, but it’s something to keep in mind, especially with more snow and wind on the way.

Today – the avalanche danger will start out LOW but will rise to MODERATE on wind loaded slopes as the day progresses.  

Doug will issue the next advisory tomorrow morning at 7:30 a.m. If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations drop us a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call us at 587-6984.

AVALANCHE EDUCATION and EVENTS

Take a look at our Education Calendar for all classes being offered.

1-hour Avalanche Awareness, Bozeman, REI, 6:30 - 8 p.m., Wednesday, March 11.

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