19-20

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Wed Feb 12, 2020

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p>Three to five feet of snow has fallen in the last week and last night’s 5” of snow (.5” snow water equivalent, <a href="https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/or/snow/?cid=nrcs142p2…;) will keep the avalanche danger elevated around Bozeman and Big Sky. Wind has subsided overnight, but wind-loaded slopes from yesterday are ripe to slide. Yesterday, another large avalanche occurred on Saddle Peak (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/22012">photos</a></strong&gt;), the second time it slid since last Thursday. We also got reports of cracking and collapsing and a small slide in Deer Creek (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/22008">details</a></strong&gt;), and Little Ellis . Both of these areas are thin and low elevation, yet reveal an unstable snow structure that can be found higher up. I toured along Mount Ellis ridge yesterday and a party behind us got collapsing and cracking on a corniced slope (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/20/collapsing-and-cracking-mt-ellis"…;). We also had poor stability scores in one of our 2 pits when sugary snow near the ground broke (<strong><a href="https://youtu.be/vr00k3PgY_E">video</a></strong&gt;). We did not ski open slopes and descended the ridge to be safe.</p>

<p>Big avalanches in the last 24 hours, wind-loading and tons (literally) of new snow should give you pause. Notch it back, stick to low-angled slopes and be patient as the snow adjusts. For today, the avalanche danger is rated CONSIDERABLE.</p>

<p><strong><u>A special note</u></strong>: The Bridger Range had an extensive avalanche cycle with many, many avalanches releasing. We documented many of them in our <strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/photos">Photos</a></strong&gt; page, <strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/avalanche-activity">Avalanche Activity</a></strong> page and also listed on our <strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/weather/wx-avalanche-log">Weather and Avalanche Log</a></strong>. Alex made 2 great videos on the slide on <strong><a href="https://youtu.be/tJUrhcTRHac">Saddle Peak</a></strong> and the mile-long crown on <strong><a href="https://youtu.be/MXPxJvSz-uk">Truman Gulch</a></strong>.</p>

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<p>The snowpack around West Yellowstone and Cooke City has been handling the snowfall remarkably well. Last night’s 2-3” around West Yellowstone and 6” outside Cooke City (.6” SWE) should not adversely affect the snow stability. Dave and I rode around Lionhead (<strong><a href="https://youtu.be/vOKh3V6ZDJ0">video</a></strong&gt;) on Sunday and Taylor Fork and Cabin Creek (<strong><a href="https://youtu.be/1kW1KxfjQK8">video</a></strong&gt;) on Monday and did not find significant avalanche activity, either natural or human triggered. After the wallop of snow, slopes did not flinch. Our stability tests are still showing loose, sugary facets at the ground occasionally breaking which point to a possibility of triggering slides. Wind-loading also remains a concern from the last couple days of strong westerly winds. Around Cooke City folks have reported similar concerns with wind-loading and the never-to-be-forgotten weak snow near the ground. Be wary around any slope that’s wind-loaded, and be thoughtful in your assessment before playing in avalanche terrain because triggering slides is still possible. For today, the avalanche danger is rated MODERATE on all slopes.</p>

<p>If you get out, please send us your observations no matter how brief. You can fill out an&nbsp;<u><strong><a href="https://mtavalanche.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6653a830e4819c9e…; target="_blank">observation form</a></strong></u>, email us (<u><strong><a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com&quot; target="_blank">mtavalanche@gmail.com</a></strong></u>), leave a VM at 406-587-6984, or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>

Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events

Our education calendar is full of awareness lectures and field courses. Check it out and plan to attend one or two: Events and Education Calendar.

COOKE CITY

Every Friday and Saturday, Snowpack Update and Rescue Training. Friday, 6:30-7:30 p.m. at the Soda Butte Lodge. Saturday anytime between 10-2 @ Round Lake.

BOZEMAN

Slides triggered in Deer Creek, N. Madison

Deer Creek
Northern Madison
Code
SS-ARr-R1-D1-S
Elevation
6700
Aspect
NE
Latitude
45.29880
Longitude
-111.20400
Notes

"Today while touring in the Deer Creek drainage in the Northern Madisons my partners and I noticed many red flags. Wind was strong from the WSW. We had lots of collapsing and some cracking while touring up. We bailed on our main objective, and while returning to the car we triggered a wind slab remotely from the bottom flats of a gulley. A rider in our group began to descend when we felt and heard a large whumph, followed by a 3-5 second loud rumbling before a wind slab on the ridge above (100 yards away) released (SS-ARr-R1-D1-S, NE aspect @ 6700'). It was about 50' wide and 1-2' deep, but didn't have enough energy to run far down the slope. Touchy stuff!"

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Snowboarder
Trigger Modifier
r-A remote avalanche released by the indicated trigger
R size
1
D size
1
Bed Surface
S - Avalanche released within new snow
Problem Type
Wind-Drifted Snow
Slab Thickness
24.0 inches
Slab Width
50.00ft
Slab Thickness units
inches
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year