19-20

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Sun Feb 16, 2020

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p>Yesterday, in the northern mountains, skiers saw a few natural avalanches that released on Friday from the strong wind and fresh snow. Today’s wind and snowfall will bring an uptick in avalanche activity. Multiple parties reported a very large avalanche in Divide Basin up Hyalite estimated a ½ to 1 mile wide and near 10 feet deep (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/22057">photos and details</a></strong>). That’s our entire season’s snowpack! Every snowpack has a breaking point and the slopes in Divide Basin clearly reached it. I’m predicting that other slopes are also dangerously close.</p>

<p>Today will remain snowy and windy and this morning’s snowfall makes a 48-hour total of 9-12” (.5-.8 snow water equivalent, <a href="https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/or/snow/?cid=nrcs142p2…;). Wind is west to southwest at 20-35 mph, a perfect speed to build wind drifts. These dense slabs will be easy to trigger and some may break at the ground. As recent activity in Divide Basin illustrates, avalanches can be large and deep. Another long running slide was seen in Bear Basin (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/20/bear-basin-natural-avalanche">pho…; </strong>and <strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/22058">details</a></strong&gt;). Skiers saw this large slide after not get anything remarkable in their stability tests. It broke near the ground from a cornice fall the day before. They turned around because avalanches are real while tests are a proxy.</p>

<p>For today, given the recent avalanche activity, new snow and wind, the avalanche danger is rated CONSIDERABLE on all wind-loaded slopes and MODERATE on all others.</p>

<p>New snow and wind in the southern mountains is keeping the possibility of avalanches alive. Wind drifts with the new snow could be triggered near the ridgelines. Furthermore, we’ve received reports of collapsing and cracking in the southern Gallatin Range (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/22060">details</a></strong&gt;), most notably where the snowpack is thin (i.e. lower elevations). Skiers around Cooke City had a few small wind drifts crack as they toured, but nothing widespread. Yesterday, I rode into Lionhead and dug to the ground in a 6’ deep snowpack with relatively good stability. As I mention in my <strong><a href="https://youtu.be/S_gUqe5axGQ">video</a></strong&gt;, wind-loaded areas are the biggest worry with a secondary concern of sugary facets at the ground that could avalanche. Do not get on steep or wind-loaded slopes if you get cracking or collapsing; these are classic warnings a skier or rider could trigger a slide. &nbsp;Given today’s snowfall and wind, avalanches are still possible in the southern mountains and the danger is rated MODERATE.</p>

<p>If you get out, please send us your observations no matter how brief. You can fill out an&nbsp;<u><strong><a href="https://mtavalanche.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6653a830e4819c9e…; target="_blank">observation form</a></strong></u>, email us (<u><strong><a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com&quot; target="_blank">mtavalanche@gmail.com</a></strong></u>), leave a VM at 406-587-6984, or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>

Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events

Our education calendar is full of awareness lectures and field courses. Check it out and plan to attend one or two: Events and Education Calendar.

COOKE CITY

Every Friday and Saturday, Snowpack Update and Rescue Training. Friday, 6:30-7:30 p.m. at the Soda Butte Lodge. Saturday anytime between 10-2 @ Round Lake.

BOZEMAN

Collapsing and cracking in the southern Gallatins

Big Horn Peak
Southern Gallatin
Code
Latitude
45.06680
Longitude
-111.05000
Notes

1. Massive rolling collapse on lower ridge of ascent on Big Horn Peak. Felt like it went out hundreds of yards uphill. No avy activity. Other various collapses while skinning up ridge. 2+ weeks ago the lower ridge only had about 40-50 cms on it, so was not surprised to have that happen after large amounts of loading.

2. Specimen Creek: Heard several whumpfs and saw shooting cracks. No avalanche triggered, but a very unstable snowpack. Some whumpfs traveled farther than others. Very deep snow, fell to about knee height on parts of the trail, even in snowshoes...many shooting cracks and loud, traveling whumpfs as well as shaking ground from settling snow. This was relatively far from avalanche terrain on flat ground. Snowpack very unstable.

Number of slides
0
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Red Flag
Advisory Year

Large natural avalanche in Middle/Bear Basin

Bear Basin
Northern Madison
Code
HS-N-R4-D2.5-O
Elevation
9500
Aspect
NE
Latitude
45.33440
Longitude
-111.37200
Notes

We encountered a natural avalanche that appears to have been triggered by a cornice drop. There seemed to be very little fresh snow on the slide surface so we suspect it occurred recently (Feb 14?). The slide occurred on the west side (east facing side) of Bear Basin (pinpoint on the map below). The avalanche was probably 200 feet wide at the top so it clearly propagate across the slope. Crown was 2 to 5 feet tall. We did not hike in there to investigate more carefully. There is a fair amount of trees on this part of the ridge. The picture shows how some large chunks got hung up on trees but we could see that the slide ran across the creek below (almost 1000 vertical feet). We had planned on skiing this slope and/or the open meadow (talus field) a hundred yards north but in light of this observation we turned around, skied back down in Middle Basin in the trees. Side note: we dug a pit earlier on an almost identical aspect (on the Beehive/Middle basin ridge) and obtained ECTN 16 @ 12" below the surface, ECTN 23 @4" below that, ECTN 28 @ 6" below that... Basically some definition between the latest storm layers but no propagation, and a right-side up snow pack. We only dug about 3 feet deep so this pit did not assess the ground level facets, which we figure are wide spread. The natural slide we encountered one ridge over seemed to be a case where a thin area was triggered by a cornice drop.

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Hard slab avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
R size
4
D size
2.5
Bed Surface
O - Old snow
Problem Type
Persistent Weak Layer
Slab Thickness
36.0 inches
Vertical Fall
1000ft
Slab Width
200.00ft
Slab Thickness units
inches
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year

Large natural avalanche in Divide Basin, Hyalite

Divide Cirque
Northern Gallatin
Code
HS-NC-R5-D3-O
Elevation
10000
Aspect
E
Latitude
45.39340
Longitude
-110.96900
Notes

1. Observed a sizable deep slab in the Divide basin which appeared to have run within the last few days. The crown extended from the southern end of the basin (northeast facing) through the summit run off Divide (southeast facing)--maybe around a mile. Slab height varied, with the upper end pushing 10 feet and the lower closer to a foot or two. On Divide, the crown approached the summit and debris had run across the flat to the mature trees. Looked like it may have been cornice triggered at the southern end on thinner cover in rocky terrain.

2. Skied the NE shoulder of Divide Peak. Spotted a 1/4 to 1/2 mile long crown spotted along the NE face of Peak 10,024, between Divide Peak and Hyalite Peak. We could not directly determine the crown height, but it was highly visible from our location ~1 mile away.

3. Several large avalanches along the west ridge of divide basin. Appeared to be set off by large cornice drops that propagated across the bowls and stepped down several feet into the snowpack.

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Hard slab avalanche
Trigger
Cornice fall
R size
5
D size
3
Bed Surface
O - Old snow
Problem Type
Persistent Weak Layer
Slab Thickness
48.0 inches
Vertical Fall
1000ft
Slab Width
2500.00ft
Slab Thickness units
inches
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year

Observed a sizable deep slab in the Divide basin which appeared to have run within the last few days. The crown extended from the southern end of the basin (northeast facing) through the summit run off Divide (southeast facing)--maybe around a mile. Slab height varied, with the upper end pushing 10 feet and the lower closer to a foot or two. On Divide, the crown approached the summit and debris had run across the flat to the mature trees. Looked like it may have been cornice triggered at the southern end on thinner cover in rocky terrain.

Northern Gallatin, 2020-02-16

Observed a sizable deep slab in the Divide basin which appeared to have run within the last few days. The crown extended from the southern end of the basin (northeast facing) through the summit run off Divide (southeast facing)--maybe around a mile. Slab height varied, with the upper end pushing 10 feet and the lower closer to a foot or two. On Divide, the crown approached the summit and debris had run across the flat to the mature trees. Looked like it may have been cornice triggered at the southern end on thinner cover in rocky terrain.

Northern Gallatin, 2020-02-16