19-20

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Mon Mar 16, 2020

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p>Yesterday’s storm favored the mountains near West Yellowstone and Cooke City with 12-14” of new snow equal to 1.2-1.6” of <u><a href="https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/or/snow/?cid=nrcs142p2… water equivalent</a></u> (SWE). The mountains near Big Sky got 9” equal to 0.9” SWE. In Hyalite and the Bridger Range a cold east wind limited snowfall to 4” (0.4” SWE). Yesterday near Cooke City skiers reported widespread natural slab avalanches breaking 6-12” deep within the storm snow (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/20/new-snow-slabs-avalanches-near-co…;, <strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/22427">details</a></strong&gt;), and a snowmobiler triggered a slide a foot deep and a hundred feet wide (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/22425">details</a></strong&gt;). Doug skied in Beehive Basin and saw minimal wind loading and the new snow was bonding well (<strong><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVd85tHEySQ&amp;list=PLXu5151nmAvSbcbVf…;, <strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/20/snowpit-beehive">photo</a></stron…;). Today the stability of the recent snow will be subject to change due to possible intense sunshine and near freezing temperatures. Where the snow surface gets wet loose snow and slab avalanches will become easy to trigger and could run long distances.</p>

<p>Anticipate decreasing stability on slopes that receive direct sun. Plan to be off of and out from underneath steep sun-exposed slopes before you see signs of instability like roller balls or natural loose snow avalanches. Ride on slopes that are sheltered from the sun and have a dry snow surface. Before riding steep slopes carefully assess the stability of the new snow by doing a stability test or watch for cracking of the snow surface or slides on small test slopes.</p>

<p>Wind is light and fresh drifts are not widespread, but remain cautious of slopes where slabs formed from east and southwest wind yesterday. Cornices get closer to breaking each day with weight from new snow or decreased strength from warmth and sunshine (<u><strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/20/huge-cornices-cooke-city">photo</…;). Stay far back from the edge of ridgelines and avoid slopes directly below large cornices.</p>

<p>Today recent snow makes avalanches possible and avalanche danger is MODERATE. Although many places are becoming deserted, the backcountry stays full of skiers and riders. Be on the lookout for each other. Stay diligent with snowpack and terrain assessment, and take precautions for avalanches like you did all winter. Ride Safe.</p>

<p>If you get out, please send us your observations no matter how brief. You can fill out an <u><a href="https://mtavalanche.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6653a830e4819c9e…; target="_blank">observation form</a></u>, email us (<u><a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com&quot; target="_blank">mtavalanche@gmail.com</a></u>), leave a VM at 406-587-6984, or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>

Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events

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Natural new snow slab avalanches, Cooke

Mt. Zimmer
Cooke City
Code
SS-N-R2-D1.5-S
Elevation
10000
Aspect Range
All
Latitude
45.11700
Longitude
-109.89300
Notes

From e-mail on 3/15/20: "At around 1230pm today, everything that was steeper than 35 degrees in star Creek simultaneously slid on east, north, south aspects. Soft slab 6-12" in thickness. Prior to that, it had been snowing S5 for three hours"

Another email 3/15/20: " observed a round of natural slab avalanches today, that seemed to run at about noon today on the north aspects of Mt. Republic.  One was a couple hundred feet wide, and looked to happen within the new snow (6"? deep crown), but it stepped down to what appeared to be the new/old snow interface in a couple of spots as well.  Significantly wide propagation and deep debris piles.  The snow on Town Hill was cracking a lot early in the day around your skis, but seemed to settle relatively quickly, 

Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
R size
2
D size
1.5
Bed Surface
S - Avalanche released within new snow
Problem Type
New Snow
Slab Thickness
8.0 inches
Vertical Fall
100ft
Slab Width
150.00ft
Weak Layer Grain type
Precipitation Particles
Slab Layer Grain Type
Precipitation Particles
Slab Thickness units
inches
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Multiple Avalanches
Advisory Year

From e-mail on 3/15/20: "At around 1230pm today, everything that was steeper than 35 degrees in star Creek simultaneously slid on east, north, south aspects. Soft slab 6-12" in thickness. Prior to that, it had been snowing S5 for three hours." Photo: B. Zavora

Cooke City, 2020-03-16

Snowmobiler triggred slide near Lulu Pass, Cooke City

Lulu Pass
Cooke City
Code
AMu-I
Latitude
45.07090
Longitude
-109.95800
Notes

Doug talked on the phone with a snowmobiler who triggered a slide outside Cooke City today (3/15/2020). The details:

  • It occurred somewhere between Round Lake and Lulu Pass, likely nearer to Lulu.
  • It was snowing hard most of the day and they had poor visibility.
  • The slide was triggered by 1 sledder. He was not caught.
  • The avalanche broke 1 foot deep and 100 feet wide. It was believed to be new snow, but not wind-loaded.
Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Trigger
Snowmobile
Trigger Modifier
u-An unintentional release
Bed Surface
I - Interface between new and old snow
Problem Type
New Snow
Slab Thickness
12.0 inches
Slab Width
100.00ft
Slab Thickness units
inches
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year