19-20

We dug near the top of Bacon Rind and found 155cm of snow. Our primary concern is with the upper snowpack. As it warms and wets we can expect an increase of avalanche activity on the ice crusts. Facets are still dry and soft at the bottom of the pack and I got this layer to break with an ECTP29. Photo: GNFAC

Southern Madison, 2020-03-18

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Wed Mar 18, 2020

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p>During mid-winter we hardly bat-an-eye at a couple inches of snow. Today is different. Temperatures will hover above freezing and sunshine will hit a few slopes and rapidly wet the new snow which could avalanche. &nbsp;Many slopes have an icy crust buried up to a foot deep that will be a sliding surface for wet snow. If the sun hits slopes, expect to see pinwheels rolling downhill and loose, wet avalanches. Skiers in Dudley Creek near Big Sky found a large wet avalanche that occurred on Monday (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/20/natural-wet-snow-avalanche-dudley…;) and smaller wet slides yesterday (<strong><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/20/human-triggered-wet-snow-avalanch…;). Similarly, on Monday Dave saw wet slides streaming off slopes in the northern Bridger Range (<strong><a href="https://youtu.be/4RMSu675sjM">video</a></strong&gt;) and yesterday many wet, loose slides were noted around Cooke City. This time of year it only takes a short hit of sun to quickly turn the surface to mush and avalanche.</p>

<p>Yesterday in Hyalite, skiers found 1” tall, feathery surface hoar growing atop shady slopes. Last night’s snowfall buried it. Although SNOTEL measured 3” of new snow, it is likely deeper than that at higher elevations. Collapsing and shooting cracks in the new snow are signs surface hoar is underfoot and serves as a warning that slopes are unstable.</p>

<p>Weather is the architect of avalanches and today the weather is fickle. Temperatures rising a few degrees warmer than expected along with a prolonged bout of sun could trigger widespread wet avalanches in the surface snow. If temperatures remain a few degrees below freezing without sun we won’t see wet instability. Since surface hoar is buried up Hyalite we should assume it’s also buried in the southern ranges until proven otherwise.</p>

<p>Conditions are dynamic today which increases my uncertainty. The interplay of new snow, wet snow, sunshine, clouds, and above freezing temperatures, point to a MODERATE avalanche danger since both wet and dry avalanches are possible.</p>

<p>If you get out, please send us your observations no matter how brief. You can fill out an <u><a href="https://mtavalanche.us17.list-manage.com/track/click?u=6653a830e4819c9e…; target="_blank">observation form</a></u>, email us (<u><a href="mailto:mtavalanche@gmail.com&quot; target="_blank">mtavalanche@gmail.com</a></u>), leave a VM at 406-587-6984, or Instagram (#gnfacobs).</p>

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Wet, loose avalanches, Dudley Creek

Dudley Creek
Northern Madison
Code
WL-ASu-R1-D1
Aspect
E
Latitude
45.31450
Longitude
-111.29500
Notes

Two skier triggered wet, loose avalanches. One was intentional and the other was unintentional (skier "went for a small ride on that one"). Both classified as R1/D1 size.  

Number of slides
2
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Wet loose-snow avalanche
Trigger
Skier
Trigger Modifier
u-An unintentional release
R size
1
D size
1
Problem Type
Wet Snow
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Multiple Avalanches
Advisory Year

Natural Wet Snow Avalanche, Dudley Creek

Dudley Creek
Northern Madison
Code
WS-N-R3-D3
Elevation
9000
Aspect
E
Latitude
45.31450
Longitude
-111.29500
Notes

Natural wet snow avalanche on the east face of Dudley, R3/D3 likely occurred Monday, March 16th.  

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Wet slab avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
R size
3
D size
3
Problem Type
Wet Snow
Slab Thickness units
centimeters
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year