24-25

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Mon Dec 23, 2024

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Near Cooke City, 4” of new snow (equal to 0.4” snow water equivalent) and moderate to strong wind yesterday increased the likelihood for a person to trigger a large </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>persistent slab avalanche</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>. While 4” of new snow is fairly small, signs point to a snowpack that should not be trusted with even small changes, and buried weak layers remain easy to collapse in the shallow early season snowpack.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Over the weekend, skiers north of Cooke City reported large collapses on low angle slopes and poor scores in snowpack tests (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/32603"><span><span><span><strong><span… 1</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/32604"><span><span><span><strong><span… 2</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>). Last Wednesday, when strong winds followed steady snowfall, multiple natural avalanches broke on weak snow near the ground and in the middle of the snowpack (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zCdhitUHk1o"><span><span><span><strong>…;, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/24/large-persistent-slab-avalanche-h… photo</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/24/persistent-slab-avalanche-fisher"… photo</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>). Similar slides can be triggered today, especially on wind-loaded slopes. These persistent slabs can be triggered from low angle terrain connected to steeper slopes.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Be extra cautious of slopes steeper than 30 degrees and their runout zones below. Fresh wind slabs are an additional small hazard to keep in mind, but the larger persistent slab problem should already steer you away from steep, wind-loaded slopes. Avalanche danger is CONSIDERABLE near Cooke City.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Through the rest of the forecast area </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>large persistent slab avalanches</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> have become less likely with only 1-2” of snow since last Tuesday, but the potential size and consequences remain large. A few inches of new snow today could increase the chances of triggering one of these slides. Fresh drifts formed yesterday, and more might form today with new snow. These drifts make </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>wind slab avalanches</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> a small hazard on their own and increase the chances of triggering a persistent slab avalanche on wind-loaded slopes.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>A few avalanches from the last week that highlight current instability include:</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<ul>
<li><span><span><span><span><span><span>Saturday on Buck Ridge a snowmobiler triggered a 12” deep</span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span> </span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>wind slab (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/32601"><span><span><span><strong><span…;).&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></li>
<li><span><span><span><span><span><span>An avalanche on Saddle Peak broke 1-3 feet deep (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/32548"><span><span><span><strong><span…;) last Wednesday.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></li>
<li><span><span><span><span><span><span>Last Tuesday Ian triggered an avalanche remotely (from lower angle terrain nearby) on Buck Ridge near Big Sky (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/32497"><span><span><span><strong><span…;).</span></span></span></span></span></span></li>
<li><span><span><span><span><span><span>On Friday a skier had a large collapse in the Bridger Range (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/32582"><span><span><span><strong><span…;).&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></li>
<li><span><span><span><span><span><span>An avalanche triggered by a cornice drop in the Hourglass couloir north of Bridger (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/32615"><span><span><span><strong><span… and info</span></span></u></span></strong></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>).</span></span></span></span></span></span></li>
</ul>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Carefully evaluate the snowpack for recently formed fresh wind slabs and buried weak layers.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>To minimize the consequences of any size slide, choose simple, non-wind-loaded slopes with few hazards like rocks, trees or cliffs. If you have any doubts about snow stability avoid slopes steeper than 30 degrees and be cautious of runout zones below. The avalanche danger is MODERATE.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

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Terrain trap avalanche in Buck Ridge

Buck Ridge
Northern Madison
Code
SS-AMu-R1-D1
Latitude
45.18770
Longitude
-111.45500
Notes

Small slide in terrain trap. Looks to be old, likely from before the wind event that occurred mid last week. A snowmobile track leads into it with wind-drifted snow covering the track.

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Snowmobile
Trigger Modifier
u-An unintentional release
R size
1
D size
1
Problem Type
Wind-Drifted Snow
Slab Thickness
8.0 inches
Slab Width
20.00ft
Snow Observation Source
Slab Thickness units
inches
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year